The recent announcement of the 30th Anniversary packs has caused quite a stir with each box containing 4 packs (60 total cards) for US$999. While that price is high, what would it take to complete a full set? Let’s break down the math to find out!
The 30th Edition set will contain 297 cards (including Basic Lands), with 113 of those being Rares, and 10 dual lands (594 total for both border options – 226 Rares, and 20 Dual Lands).
Each pack contains 15 cards. 13 cards in Modern Frame (7 Commons, 3 Uncommons, 1 Rare, 2 Basic Lands); 2 are in Retro Frame (1 Basic Land, and 1 of any rarity), and 1 token card.
It is not known what the distribution of Rares, Uncommons, and Commons are in the Retro Frame slot so we will break things down assuming the distribution is 1:4 for Rares. That means for every pack, there is only a 25% chance that it will contain a Retro Frame Rare card.
How Much to Complete a 30th Edition Set With a Mix of Modern and Retro Framed Cards?
Even with 0 duplication among the Rares (almost an impossibility) in a 30th Edition box, the minimum number of packs required would be 92 packs, since that will give you an estimated 115 Rares, just over the number of Rares in the set:
92 packs = 92 Modern Frame Rares.
¼ of those packs would also contain a Retro Frame Rare = est. 23 Retro Frame Rares.
Total Rares = 92 + 23 = 115 Rares
With zero duplication among the Rares (almost an impossibility) the minimum number of packs required would be 92 packs, which would be 23, 30th Edition packs for a total of $22,977.
If we assume that duplication would occur 25% of the time across all of the packs (This varies in every set but generally ranges between 25% and 33% on average) that number would be 115 individual packs or 29 30th Anniversary boxes for a total of $28,971.
Unequal Distribution of Rares
However, this assumes that all of the Rares across the set are included in equal numbers across packs, which is unlikely. Wizards has already stated that Dual Lands will appear 2 times as often on the print sheet. A good thing!
There is no way to know, at this time, what that exact distribution will be, but a conservative estimate would be 4:1 for the more frequent Rares to the less frequent Rares, such as a Thoughtlace to a piece of the Power 9. This would bring the total to between US$91,908 and US$115,884 based on what we currently know.
These numbers could skew massively if any card or cards show up less than one in four packs on average, driving those totals up even higher as well. We are also assuming, based on the statement that Dual Lands will have a higher distribution average, that one will obtain all of the Dual Lands within the course of opening between 92 and 115 packs.
US$100,000 is a lot of money, especially when sealed Collector’s Edition sets are available for a fraction of even the most optimistic numbers, and on the upper end we are approaching the price for a complete Unlimited or even Beta set, both of which are legal for competitive play unlike the 30th Edition anniversary set.
How Much for a Complete Set of Retro Frame 30th Edition Cards?
But wait! What if you wanted a complete set that was entirely in Retro Frame? It’s going to be even more costly because there is only 1 Retro Frame slot per pack, meaning you’re only getting 4 Retro Frame cards per US$1,000 spent.
If the ratio of Rare to Uncommon/Common is 1:4, 25% duplication, and a 4:1 distribution among the Rares, that would place a full set around US$179,820 even in a best-case scenario. More realistic models would put it between US$500,000 and US$1.12M to complete!
End Step
Here’s a breakdown of the costs to complete a 30th Edition set:
| SET | DUPLICATION / DISTRIBUTION | COST |
|---|---|---|
| Mixed (Retro + Modern Frame) | No Duplication, Equal Distribution | US$22,977 |
| Mixed (Retro + Modern Frame) | 25% Duplication, Equal Distribution | US$28,971 |
| Mixed (Retro + Modern Frame) | No Duplication, Unequal Distribution | US$91,908 |
| Mixed (Retro + Modern Frame) | 25% Duplication, Unequal Distribution | US$115,884 |
| Retro Frame Only | 25% Duplication, Equal Distribution | US$179,820 |
Those are staggering numbers. So much so, that even the initial reaction from big-time collectors – their target audience – isn’t positive. It would be hard to make a case that this set, which is not legal for play, is going to be more valuable than the actual original sets. That is the real issue at hand and is the reason I started to break down the numbers myself immediately after the announcement.
Outside of a true completionist, it is almost a certainty that a complete set will be valued far below the cost to obtain it, which eliminates the majority of those high-end collectors it is supposedly aimed at.
Feeling lucky? There are a few different simulators that have been created to see what your luck might be like cracking a $999 30th Anniversary box. Try one out to see how many packs would you need to get the Power 9!
